Somalia

 

·        Possible cancellation of the 2016 General Elections.

·        IGAD mediating Galmudug resource exploration in Puntland. Links Natural Resources FZC warned by the PPMA director not to enter Puntland territory.

·        UK statement of support for Somalia, gradual thawing of relations with other nations.

·        Al Shabab amnesty offer extended.

·        US hardware and software (drones), not boots, on the ground in Somalia. Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda to supply the boots.

·        AMISOM extended until May 30, 2016

·        EU funds 22,000 AMISOM salaries, cuts announced.

·        Uganda to re-attempt sending helicopters to Somalia

 

Projection:

Civil unrest 2016:Civil service and security staff pay cuts/taxation.

Civilians keeping their positions within the civil service going to the ‘dark’ side to compensate for wage losses and need to meet first priority: ‘feed families’.

Situation exacerbated by:

·         Price rises associated with inflationary pressure from international spending.

·         New AS commander showing signs of strategic ability i.e. ‘hearts and minds’ gestures (hostage releases, apparently less bellicose ATOR). Has been criticized within AS for same.